Monday, 9 July 2012

Black cloud of uncertainty to keep equity markets under wraps

Image: Dominik Morbitzer
If only the global economy wasn’t losing so much momentum, the euro’s continuing depreciation would be a great stimulus for the eurozone and the corporate sector.

Markets start the week with their focus on three areas at least: corporate earnings in the US, China’s GDP growth on Friday and today’s Eurogroup meeting, which is to take forward the points agreed on banking integration at last month’s EU summit.

On earnings, the season starts with expectations having been revised sharply downwards in recent weeks. Six companies in the S&P 500 report this week, starting with Alcoa tonight and ending with a few financials, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo.

As pointed out last week, consensus expectations for second quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 back were 9.2 percent back at the start of April, 8.8 percent at the start of May, 7.4 percent at the start of June and now 5.8 percent as the results season gets underway. Stripping out the Financial sector, which will benefit from an easy comparison of the second quarter of last year, Thomson Reuters estimate that second quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 will be negative. More >

Mike Lenhoff
Chief Strategist

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