Although the headline figure for the US non-farm payrolls came in below expectations, those of previous months were revised upwards by some 53,000. Overall then the employment picture is not as bad as might have been inferred from the April numbers and what matters from the Fed’s point of view is the underlying trend.
As the chart shows, the monthly addition to the private sector payrolls has slipped below the 3 and 12-month moving averages but the former (the 3-month) still lies above the latter, though just. On that basis, there is a loss of momentum coming through in the job numbers despite the upward revisions to previous months. That said, it is worth bearing in mind that prior to March, the job numbers had been better than expected. More>