- One is that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not change its colours. Its ethos is based around the view that the single greatest contribution it can make to economic growth in the eurozone is nothing other than price stability. Only through a change in the charter laying out its statutes could its behaviour be altered but such a change would not be viable or acceptable under the lead role played by Germany’s Bundesbank and probably not viable either under the Presidency of Mario Draghi.
- Another is that the European Commission (EC), with the backing of the ECB and the IMF, is unlikely to let the Reinforced Growth and Stability Pact be picked apart by Hollande, Samaras or any other would be political leader. This Pact underlies the Inter-governmental Treaty setting out the framework for the fiscal adjustment intended to put the European Union onto the medium term path to debt sustainability and to which all but two EU members (the UK and the Czech Republic) have signed up.