Monday, 6 February 2012

Giant win for equity markets?

© BrokenSphere / Wikimedia Commons
Good news for equity markets! Yesterday’s Super Bowl champs, that is. Or should this have been anticipated with the Dow’s rise to new post-financial crisis highs? The New York Giants, who defeated the New England Patriots, came from the old National Football Conference of the National Football League (NFL). The Patriots came from the old American Football Conference. A win by a team from the former division is supposed to be good for the US equity market. The record for this Super Bowl Indicator – an 80 percent success rate is attributed to it – is probably as good, and maybe better, than anyone else’s.

However, for non-NFL fans there is still good news for Wall Street. While the Fed Chairman’s sentiment about a ‘frustratingly slow’ recovery is no doubt widely shared, not only is the economy growing but also the recovery is proving to be sustainable. What better economic indicator of this than employment and, for monetarists, broad money supply. Employment is growing more strongly than expected – aside from last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls, the latest revisions to the series for 2011 show that more jobs were created than estimated – and broad money supply growth is beginning to pick up again after the loss of momentum for much of last year. More >
MIKE LENHOFF, CHIEF STRATEGIST

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